Minor League Rundown

The Atlanta system has been known for its pitching the past few years, and even though a number of arms have graduated in 2011 (Beachy, Minor, Kimbrel no longer eligible), there is still more than enough depth. Aside from the big three (Teheran, Delgado, Vizcaino), there are a number of other starters (Hoover, Spruill, Hale) that look plenty valuable themselves. For those looking at hitting prospects, many at the higher levels are more glove-first, with much of the big hitting left in the lower levels. Even so, it’s hard not to like how much up-the-middle talent (Simmons, Bethancourt to name a few) is playing, and playing well right now. 

1. Julio Teheran, RHP (AAA): Pretty much everything that can be said has been said about him already. His fantastic fastball (with late late life), curve (with sharp downward tilt), and changeup (with great fade and run) just don’t seem fair. The command of the offering will solidify soon enough as Teheran simply needs more time to develop. While his 3.06 FIP or 7.59 K/9 IP at AAA does not impress as much as some of the more gaudy lines out there, don’t be deterred. It’s pretty hard to find someone of his age (21 in 2012) who already has his combination of stuff (especially the change up) and command.
2. Randall Delgado, RHP (AA, AAA): Always the guy ranked somewhere behind Teheran, it seems as if he almost looks worse than he should when the comparisons fly. His stuff and command aren’t as sharp as Teheran, almost understating the quality of his fastball and curve. The former still has good life and the curve can definitely be an outstanding pitch with more consistency. Delgado’s 117.1 innings of 3.82 FIP baseball were propped up by a strong K rate, but limited by 3.53 walks per 9 IP. Improved command should do wonders for him in time, especially if he wants to earn a spot in the stacked Atlanta rotation.
3. Andrelton Simmons, SS (High Class A): Quietly becoming one of the top shortstop prospects in all of the minors, Simmons has pushed Matt Lipka aside in the organizational depth chart. It remains to be seen how much his bat will develop, but his defensive abilities are already sounding like they will provide huge value with good hands and massive arm strength. While it’s true he didn’t post huge counting stats in 2011 (.311/.351/.408), the contact he’s been showing is looking great for someone his age (5% bb, 7.5% K). Even though he doesn’t walk a ton or hit for big power, he can generate a ton of quality contact and line drives. Simmons speed also plays up on the bases, adding on another chunk of value.
4. Arodys Vizcaino, RHP (High Class A, AA, AAA): As far as pure stuff goes, there is no doubt that Vizcaino can be better than anyone in the system. His 40.1 innings at High A earned him a 3.08 FIP, while his AA effort was equally impressive with 49.2 innings and 55 strikeouts against 18 walks (3.04 FIP). The problem with that is that he simply does not show those kinds of performances all the time. And there will always be lingering injury concerns. Beyond that, I don’t think he has regularly shown the command you want in a frontline starter, or a starter in general. It would be easier to rank him higher if it didn’t seem that his future is in the ‘pen.
5. Christian Bethancourt, C (Low Class A, High A): Another raw, but exciting up-the-middle prospect, Bethancourt already has a fairly good idea how to put bat to ball. However, at 20 years old he still has to get a better idea of the strikezone with 11 walks on the year against 62 Ks between Low A and High A ball. Following his promotion to High A he struggle with the bat, but his Low A display showed that there is definitely some power projection there. At both levels, his defense showed off plenty of potential with 32% caught stealing at High A (54 games) and an impressive 47% at High A (45 games) while keeping his passed balls at an acceptable level.
6. J.J. Hoover, RHP (AA, AAA): In the unfortunate position of being a mid-rotation type starter in the Atlanta organization, his future may be in the bullpen. For the purposes of this list I’ll consider him a starter candidate as his stuff, frame (6’3″, 215 lbs), and past results all point to him capably filling in that role. Hoover mixes in multiple breaking balls off of a strong fastball, along with a complimentary change that is more than just a get-me-over type pitch. The junior college draft pick has never shown massive velocity (mainly lower 90s), but he has registered strong K to bb rates this year (86-28 in 87 IP) and last (118-35 in 132 IP). Unknown to some, he has been one of the most consistently good arms in the entire organization.
7. Zeke Spruill, RHP (High Class A, AA): Another one of the slightly lesser-watched arms in the system, Spruill’s value comes from an ability to generate big ground ball numbers and stay in the strikezone regularly. Occasionally encountering makeup issues in years past, it seems as if that was not the case this year with a 3.20 FIP in 129.2 High A innings and a promotion to AA. He still has room to add strength at 6’4″, 184 lbs., so one might even see a velocity bump upwards at some point on his low 90s heater. Spruill already gets great movement on his fastball, along with a curve that doesn’t bite a ton but has looked pretty impressive at times. Any additional development to his change could pay dividends moving forward as well.
8. Tyler Pastornicky, SS (AA and AAA): He’s almost a full year younger than Andrelton Simmons, and has already picked up a handful of starts at the AAA level. While Pastornicky has yet to show any sort of power, he has shown off a quality hit tool and good knowledge of the strikezone (6.1% bb, 8.6% K). In 90 AA games, he hit .299/.345/.414 while stealing 20 bases (although caught 8 times), showing the aptitude to at least be a solid regular offensively. The significant part of Pastornicky’s value is derived from his defense, however. At the moment he has the range and arm needed, it’s just a matter of him sharpening up his overall game in the field, as this year was slightly down for him.
9. Matt Lipka, SS/CF (Low Class A): Unfortunately for Lipka, the hitting aptitude he put on display in 2010 Rookie League action was less present in 2011 Low A play. While he still showed off a little pop, great speed, and an improved walk rate, this year was a step back. Lipka’s strikeout rate rose as his stolen base success worsened, all while the organization worked to move him off of shortstop and to center field. A lost year, but plenty of potential still remains. I still think his swing is clean and level, so he may just simply need to make some adjustments in his approach to high A pitching.
10. Edward Salcedo, 3rd, SS (Low Class A): Many of the physical tools are there for him to become a valuable infielder (speed, power, arm strength) with more development time. At the moment it looks like Salcedo will be needing plenty of time as he needs to work on his swing (which has plenty of holes) and the finer points of his defensive game. While his .148 ISO (12 HRs, 6 triples, 27 doubles) does not jump off the charts and his 18.6% K rate is too high, he can draw a walk (7.2%), he has shown the potential to be a dangerous hitter.
11. David Hale, RHP (High Class A): Coming out of Princeton, most loved his potential as a convert from hitting and pitching to being a full time starting pitcher. Hale’s shown good velocity for the majority of his career, and while the Braves looked at him as a reliever for most of it, he’s meant to start. That idea finally stuck in the second half of this year, and Hale took full advantage of it, posting solid groundball (1.81 GB-FB) and strikeout (7.98/9 IP) rates, keeping his walks at a manageable level. Even with his lackluster 19.1 innings of bullpen time in the first half of 2011, Hale posted a 3.84 FIP on the year. Atlanta has to view him a quality starter candidate going forward.
12. Joey Terdoslavich, 1st/3rd (High Class A): As far as current in-game power goes, there might not be anyone else who has more easy power than the Long Beach State product. The switch-hitting corner infielder started full-time at first base this year, and smacked 74 extra base hits, amassing a .240 ISO (20 Hrs, 2 triples, 52 doubles). Terdoslavich strikes out a bit much (20%) but you have to appreciate his approach in that he can level out his swing and hit a ton of doubles. Even though the 7.6% walk rate isn’t astounding, I think it is well within reason to assume it bumps up to at least 10% in his 2nd full pro year. The promotion to AA will be one to watch.
13. Dimaster Delgado, LHP (High Class A): Sharing time with Hale in the Lynchburg Hillcats rotation, the Panamanian spent most of 2011 rediscovering his feel for pitching in live action after missing 2010 with an injured hand. As one might guess his command was far from stellar, allowing 48 walks, 86 hits and 8 HRs through 96 innings of 3.94 ERA (4.37 FIP) ball. Delgado’s strikeout rate dropped from 9.39/9 IP in 2009 to 7.22 this year, so he really is still working to get the command of his arsenal back. He saw slight improvement in his peripherals during the second half, but his groundball and strikeout rates both fell. I think the pre-2010 stuff is there, so it’s just a matter of Delgado ironing out any mechanical problems that are limiting his effectiveness.
14. Tommy La Stella, 2nd (Low Class A): La Stella showed those in the Atlanta organization that he’s already a little too old for Low A ball. With a .328/.401/.543 line in 270 plate appearances, the Coastal Carolina product showed off sneaky left-handed power and an advanced grasp of the strike zone. His 9.6% walk rate, 10.4% K rate, and .216 ISO shows how much hard contact he can make while still maintaining a above-average level of patience at the dish. As long as he can continue to provide at least average defense at second, he should climb quickly. He’s shown that he can hit throughout college (he dominated in the spring at Coastal Carolina) so high A shouldn’t pose a massive challenge to him.
15. Carlos Perez, LHP (Low Class A): The Dominican lefty is one of those prospects that makes you scratch your head. The potential is there for him to shut down lineups, but he seems to regularly struggle to put everything together. Most find that Perez’ command issues will hamper his future potential, something you saw with his 111 Ks against 66 bb through 126 IP (3.83 FIP) in 2011. Through the first half his 72 Ks against 30 bb in 75 IP were quite solid, while his BABIP was higher than average as bad luck and poor command combined harshly. In the second half he surrendered less hits, but his K rate plummeted (37 in 50 IP) and his walks rose (36 in 50 IP). One wonders which will show up in 2012.
16. J.R. Graham, RHP (Rookie League; Appalachian): I’m not sure if Graham fell in the 2011 Draft because of his smaller frame (6′, 185 lbs.) or more likely because of his motion, but one thing’s for sure: you will see plenty of hard fastballs from him. He regularly throws in the mid to upper 90s, usually sitting lower in starts, with a strong offspeed offering. I don’t have any huge gripes about his mechanics aside from their less than fluid nature, although there’s always room for improvement. His solid rookie league command earned him 52 Ks against 13 walks, along with a very strong groundball rate. Graham started in 8 of his 13 appearances, so hopefully he continues to start games with his big velocity in Low A action next year.
17. Brandon Drury, 3rd (Rookie League; Appalachian): Even if he might be just a tad aggressive at the plate (2.2% walk rate), you can’t argue with the adjustments that he’s made this year. The second year pro out of the Oregon HS system bumped up his ISO .83 points from last year’s rookie league action, while also cutting his K rate in half (24% to 12%). Drury will certainly have to tone down his approach at higher levels, but he knows how to put bat to ball. He’s spent time at both second and third in 2011, so he should be just fine defensively until he begins to add a little more strength to his 6’2″ 190 lbs. frame.
18. Billy Bullock, RHP (AA, AAA): The former Twins farmhand is not a candidate to be anywhere near a rotation, but he certainly works well out of a bullpen. Bullock is a big time strikeout reliever that could easily be used in high leverage situations, even if he admittedly still has plenty of command issues to iron out (34 bb in 49.2 IP will do that to a guy). He’s shown off mid to high 90s velocity and a big breaking ball that can give hitters fits. When it’s over the plate of course. The 6’6″ 225 lbs. reliever has routinely posted high walk rates in his career, but if he can begin to repeat his mechanics more he should quickly be heading on up to Atlanta.
19. Chase Larsson, OF (Rookie League; Appalachian): The Division II player of the year will always be able to get by on his bat. While he didn’t dominate in his first 61 professional games, Larsson’s .250/.361/.438 line (8 Hrs, 15 doubles, 31 bb to 36 Ks) is a solid first step. He has the right approach to succeed against pro pitching, although it remains to be seen if he will hit for enough power to get by. In his case, he’ll need to hit for plenty as he is ticketed for an outfield corner, a place where he should be at least average.
20. Todd Cunningham, CF/LF (High Class A): For someone who looked like such a complete all-around hitter coming out of college, it’s been disappointing to see how his first two pro years have gone. While the power hasn’t been there (and I expected it would take time), the rest has been absent as well. It’s true that this year saw a nice jump in walks while he also stole a few bases, but it’s hard to tell if he will hit enough to be a regular. On top of that, there have been quite a few questions about whether or not he can stick in center. I think he can be at the very least average in center (if not solid-above average), and his bat may come around in time. He’ll need to begin to lay off borderline pitches going forward as his swing is so contact-oriented.