Minor League Rundown

The upside is there for quality hitting talent at the lower levels, but pitching is where the system is strongest. With the acquisition of Zach Wheeler for Carlos Beltran and the further positive development of Harvey and Familia, there is some quality right-handed pitching on the way.

1. Jenrry Mejia, RHP (AAA, Majors): At the ripe old age of 22, it’s clear that Mejia still needs a good bit of development time. It would certainly help if he was given some quality time down in the AA rotation to work on the finer points of pitching, as opposed to random action out of the major league bullpen. I hope Mets management won’t continue to view Mejia as a bullpen piece with quality starters like Matt Harvey and Zach Wheeler on the way, as he deserves a shot at starting before they start knocking on the door. His 11 strong starts between AA and AAA the past two years (3.49 FIP, 44.1 IP/2.83 FIP, 27.1 IP) are a good indicator of his talent level as a starter, more so than his 4.72 FIP in 39 major league innings.  
2. Zack Wheeler, RHP (High Class A): Even though, statistically speaking (3.75 FIP), there may have been stronger pitchers out there, Wheeler has fantastic upside. His hard low-to-mid 90s tailing fastball gets on hitters quick, a pitch that sets up a quality hard breaking curve. As long as he brings down his 4.81 bb/9 IP in 2012, Wheeler should be well on his way to carving up AA hitting with an already strong 10+/9 IP strikeout rate. Only 21, his 1.68 FIP in 6 post-Beltran-trade starts show how good he can be when he keeps the walk totals low.
3. Matt Harvey, RHP (High Class A, AA): Most importantly for the righty, he continued to throw strikes all year long (2.84 bb/9 IP at A+, 3.47 at AA). Harvey showed good command of a strong fastball and quality curve, with the strikeout numbers to match (10.89/9 IP at A+, 9.65 at AA). A solid ground ball rate makes him that much more valuable. It was a welcome sight to see such good command after a shaky end to his college career. He still has room for improvement in needing to stay around the strike zone a bit more, but a 2.66 FIP in 76 High A innings and 3.23 FIP through 59.2 AA innings is fantastic for a first year pro.
4. Brandon Nimmo, CF (Rookie League): His overall offensive upside remains a bit murky (mainly in the power department), while the quality of his tools and swing are readily apparent. I still believe that he will become a fantastic prospect once he concentrates on baseball year round, an environment that the baseball-less Wyoming high school system did not provide. Nimmo’s left-handed swing is great for his age, and he’s got the athleticism/speed to play a quality center field. He should hit for quality average and above-average power as a center fielder, possibly like a less-speedy Christian Yelich in time.
5. Jeurys Familia, RHP (High Class A, AA): The raw potential has always been there, and it seems as if it’s become a little more refined in 2011 (2.32 FIP at High A, 3.96 FIP at AA). Familia’s walk rate still needs work (3.13/9 IP overall, 3.59 at AA), but you have to like his improvement from the 5.50/9 IP mark of 2010. It was a welcome sign to see his high K rate stay intact, even bumping back up to his A ball levels upon a promotion to AA (up to 9.86/9 IP). Familia is largely a fly ball guy, so he’ll have to keep the strong command in check once he receives his next promotion.
6. Wilmer Flores, SS/3rd (High Class A): Hmm. Flores has been one of the biggest prospect names in the lower levels for a while now. Unfortunately for the Mets, his power still hasn’t shown up like they thought it would. You still definitely have to keep faith though, as he just turned 20 in August, and the tools still show up in games. Wilmer’s walk rate did improve marginally and his K rate didn’t go any farther north, but his power numbers were stagnant once again. The rumors that he might eventually move to third only further exacerbate Flores’ need to show some power.
7. Cesar Puello, OF (High Class A): Speaking of high upside with little results, the Dominican outfielder does have quite a bit of power and speed, but somewhat less formidable plate discipline. With a 3.7% walk rate and strikeouts coming 21.1 percent of the time at high A, plenty of work still needs to be done. His promotion to high A has seen a decrease in walks, a rise in strikeouts, and a lower rate of stolen base success, with only a solid improvement in power numbers to offset the developmental losses. Fortunately the tools are still there. For him it all hinges on better plate discipline and pitch recognition.
8. Aderlin Rodriguez, 3rd (Low Class A): Last in line of the young-but-developing trifecta, Aderlin destroyed Rookie League pitching in 2010 before earning his 2011 bump up to low class A ball. Similar to the above two youngsters, he struggled through most of 2011 while showing the tools and potential to be much better in time. Rodriguez is only 19, so he’ll be right on time with a promotion to High A next year, as long as he starts to show more selectivity (5% bb, 19% K) at the plate. Power is his calling card, so a .153 ISO (.376 slugging) will also need to see marked improvement.
9. Cory Vaughn, OF (Low/High Class A): Very quietly, Vaughan represents one of the stronger offensive talents in the system. Vaughn has the power, eye, and bat speed to be a solid regular outfielder if he can further develop his pitch recognition. His 22% K rate must not get any worse at the AA level, as his power is not big enough to compensate for the lack of regular quality contact. Nevertheless, he’s athletic, has posted around a 10%+ walk rate every year, and his power potential is still of value. Vaughn should not be expected to post so low a BABIP next year (.247), so some offensive resurgence (more like his low A numbers) should be in order.
10. Reese Havens, 2nd (High Class A, AA): Going all the way back to his college career, Havens has shown quality pop and the ability to get on base at a glove-first position. The second baseman unfortunately underwhelmed in the power department this year while his strikeout rate rose and his injury troubles continued. If he can show consistent health next year in his age 25 season, it’s likely that Havens will be a consistent offensive performer. If not, it’s highly possible that his power will not fully show itself and the strikeout troubles will continue, severely limiting his value.
11. Juan Lagares, INF/OF (High Class A, AA): The free-swinging former shortstop is now manning the outfield in AA Binghamton, and it has brought him new life. While much of this new life is inflated by a big BABIP numbers (.379 at A+, .439 at AA), Lagares definitely knows how to put bat to ball. With just around average power, it will be key for him to keep making quality contact going forward. On top of this, he’ll need to maintain nothing less than to the 6.3% walk rate that he showed at High A this year to be relevant. It’s not impossible, but he needs to keep evolving to be anything more than a 4th outfielder/bench bat.
12. Michael Fulmer, RHP (Rookie League): It may take a little while to get the kinks in his mechanics worked out, but the pure stuff is there for him to be a quality top of the rotation guy. Fulmer already shows solid low-to-mid 90s velocity and a curve that is probably going to be his meal ticket. Even if he fails to show the command necessary to start Fulmer should settle in as a high leverage bullpen piece. The landing in his delivery is a little funny-looking, but if he can throw strikes with it there is no reason to change it barring health concerns.
13. Cory Mazzoni, RHP (Short Season NY-Penn, High Class A): Statistically speaking there isn’t much to write home about in his 13 inning professional debut. Pure potential-wise, Mazzoni has the fastball and breaking stuff to be a quality rotation piece, and if you look at his college career, that’s pretty clear. Much of the Mets’ remaining pitching depth is buried in Class A ball, so he will need to compete for innings. If the Mets are smart they won’t make him, as he likely has one of (if not the) best two pitch mixes down there.
14. Allan Dykstra, 1st (AA): The pure power has always been there for the 2008 Draftee, and it seems to have shown up a little bit more following a trade to the Mets organization. It was a marginal increase (up to .208 from .197), but the power stayed with Dykstra after his promotion to AA, a welcome sign. Unfortunately, a rising strikeout rate has also followed the slugger. His 27.6% K rate is a career high, and while he can certainly draw a walk (14.5%), Dykstra hasn’t shown the power to legitimize that high a K rate. He must to show a more balanced approach next year during his age 25 season.
15. Danny Muno, SS/2nd (Short Season NY-Penn): Probably an overzealous ranking, the senior sign out of Fresno State has a patient approach and a high doubles/line drive swing that should land him in High A by the start of 2012. If Muno maintains his current production of 43 walks against 39 Ks and a .159 ISO, it should make him a quality offensive middle infielder. He showed similar production in the college game, so this is not a new development either. Any decrease in power or loss of patience in his game will shift the focus of his future more towards a utility role.
16. Chase Hutchingson, LHP (Low Class A): The part-time starter, part-time reliever (mainly reliever) for Low A Savannah, Hutchingson’s 84 innings of 2.30 FIP baseball leaves the Mets with an interesting decision heading into 2012. At 6’5″, 197 lbs., the lefty has the frame for starting, and if he can command his pitches well enough, the stuff is also there to throw quality innings. Hutchingson has succeeded in keeping the ball down this year, a quality that could prove quite valuable in the confines of Citi Field no matter if he is a starter or set-up man in New York.
17. Angel Cuan, LHP (Low Class A): At Low A Savannah, much of the rotation kept walks at a minimum, and it was no different for this lefty. Cuan managed to somehow only walk 16 in 124 innings, while striking out 99 en route to a 3.14 FIP. More of a fly ball type pitcher, he will need to further sharpen the command of his secondary stuff at High A and AA to keep more advanced hitters guessing. At 5’11″, 150 lbs, there is still some projection left on the 22 year old. It would be quite interesting to see him add a little more velocity to his fastball. 
    
18. Gregory Peavey, RHP (Low/High Class A): The righty is not a big time strikeout pitcher, but his impeccable command and solid ground ball rates make him a future back-of-the-rotation option. Peavey’s 78 innings of Low A 2.62 FIP baseball were a product of his control (11 walks), solid stuff (69 Ks), and limiting the longball. His 10 High A starts (3.12 FIP) were somewhat less easy to project on as he only struck out 39 in 59 innings, walking 15. As long as Peavey can throw somewhere in between his Low and High A results, he could very well be a quality prospect. His strong ground ball tendencies will be key.
19. Logan Verrett, RHP (Yet To Debut- 2011 Draftee): With a wide arsenal of pitches in college and solid command, Verrett looks like a quality back of the rotation arm. If the right-hander can make his change-up more of a weapon, it will do wonders for him in separating himself from the pack in a crowded starting pitching situation in Class A.
20. Darin Gorski, LHP (High Class A): The 2009 Draftee out of college is a little old for High Class A, but he certainly made the most of it. Through 138.2 innings, he struck out 140 and only walked 29, ending up with a 2.99 FIP. He’s more-or-less a control/command lefty that has predominantly fly ball tendencies, so he will need to continue to command the strike zone well as he faces a much larger challenge at AA Binghamton.

Notables: Matt Den Dekker, OF (High Class A, AA), Taylor Whitenton, RHP (Low Class A), Erik Goeddel, RHP (Low Class A), Tyler Pill, RHP (Yet To Debut- 2011 Draftee), Jack Leathersich, LHP (Short Season NY-Penn), Robbie Shields, INF (Low/High Class A), Gregory Pron, OF (Rookie Lg., Appy), Travis Taijeron, OF (Short Season NY-Penn), Gonzalez Germen, LHP (Low Class A), Chasen Bradford, RHP (Rookie Lg., Appy), Jeremy Gould, LHP (Short Season NY-Penn)