2013 MLB Draft: Top 30 College Pitchers Heading Into Spring (1-10)

12/07/2012

For what the college crop lacks in hitters, it tries to make up for it with front-line starters. The first four or five college pitchers that go off of the board will be among the best talent in the entire draft, not just the best of the college ranks. Manaea, Stanek, Appel, and Crawford are all close enough in talent to where there isn’t a strong consensus as to who is the best. Each has their specific flaw, even with all of the remarkable upside that each pitcher possesses. After those four are off of the board, the next three or so arms (Wahl, Gonzales, Windle) could manage to be just as valuable in the long run. While the big four display average to solid command and great raw stuff, these three have one or two good offerings, but great pitchability. The depth of solid LHP  is a bit of a surprise, with some of the lefties not on this list (Ziomek, Littrell, Haines) easily being capable of jumping into the first round.

1. Sean Manaea, LHP (Indiana State): It’s amazing just how much his stock has risen since the beginning of this summer. He certainly didn’t come completely out of nowhere, but Manaea has leapfrogged so many other arms. Even though this draft class is particularly average (or even below-average), you can’t ignore the fact that his mid-90s fastball, strong change-up, and developing slurve make him appear ready to lead a rotation in a few years’ time. Against some of the very best summer competition in the Cape Cod league, he dominated hitters, even though he still needs work as a pitcher (as opposed to being more of a thrower now). It interesting that Manaea may even add more velocity as he fills out a little more. He still needs to take steps forward to become more polished, but aside from Stanek and Crawford, not many can be as unhittable has this lefty.
2. Ryne Stanek, RHP (Arkansas): Stanek may just be the best mix of pure stuff, performance, and polish as far as college arms go. His fastball has consistently registered in the mid 90s for a while now with good life, and his slider has looked utterly ridiculous at times throughout his college career. Stanek has battled some inconsistency with his secondary offering, but when it is on, the pitch creates a downright unfair matchup for most any hitter. In last year’s much better draft class, he would have been in the first round. This year, he should go within the first three picks if he continues to pitch like he has in his first two years.
3. Mark Appel, RHP (Stanford): The book on Appel does not seem to be all that different that last year. The raw stuff is still there, as are the results (most of the time) and the starter’s frame, along with questions about his ability to deceive hitters and hide the ball (at all) during his delivery. One has to wonder how much mid 90s velocity can do for a pitcher if it is so easy to pick up (and follow) the ball so early in his motion (a la LaTroy Hawkins). Looking at a pitcher like Manaea above, you can clearly see the benefits of a funky, deceptive delivery (although not in arm health). Yes, he has clear value with his stuff, polish, and size, but it remains to be seen if he will be above all these other arms on the majority of teams’ draft boards.
4. Jonathan Crawford, RHP (Florida): The Gator righty deserves to be right in the conversation with the three pitchers above. Considering the life on his fastball and the quality of his secondary stuff, I would love to see some PitchFX data on Crawford. For having as much movement as he does on his pitches it really is impressive his walk rate was as low as it was in 2012. Even so, the junior has not missed bats at that high of a rate with Florida, even with such nasty raw stuff. He followed up a strong playoff run in the spring with some quality starts with Team USA this summer. It wouldn’t shock me to see him go in the top three picks if Crawford really begins to take advantage of his stuff and begins to show a higher K rate.
5. Bobby Wahl, RHP (Ole Miss): This is probably where the next tier of college arms begins. I’m not entirely sure why though. Wahl has been posting excellent pitching lines ever since he pitched in the 2011 Cape Cod League. The Virginia native has consistently limited opposing lineups’ ability to square him up, even though his stuff might not be on the same level as the Staneks and Appels of the world. His arm strength is great, as his arm speed, which combined with a developing change-up should put him squarely on track to be a starter as a pro. If his breaking ball improves in 2013, it should go a long way to solidifying a spot around the top-half of the first round.
6. Marco Gonzales, LHP (Gonzaga): Even though he certainly will have plenty of competition, the athletic 6′ Colorado native should very well be the second college lefty taken in June. Gonzales has been a consistent strike-thrower in the West Coast Conference, and has struck out hitters a solid rate throughout the 198 inning of his first two years. Milage may be a bit of a concern for teams interested in the lefty, but with his athleticism I doubt that many teams would be scared away. He already has a fantastic change-up, and if his slider becomes more of a strikeout pitch Gonzales will jump up into the top tier of college arms. I’m curious to see how hitters would fare against him if his velocity jumped up a tic like it did for Danny Hultzen in 2011. With his command, polish, and pro-level change-up any improvement in velocity would be quite an interesting development.
7. Tom Windle, LHP (Minnesota): The Big Ten lefty already has a good bit of draft helium already, and it should carry through to the spring nicely. In a so-so draft class, a college lefty with above-average velocity, pitchability, and good (at times) secondary stuff could easily find himself somewhere in the first round. Windle has yet to start full-time at Minnesota, but when he has had the opportunity to the past two summers (Northwoods, Cape Cod), he posted impressive K rates, while continually throwing strikes. As long as he is given the opportunity this spring, he should continue to thrive in a Big Ten not exactly known for their tough lineups.
8. Andrew Mitchell, RHP (TCU): I don’t think anyone is entirely sure if the big righty can throw enough strikes to be an effective starter in the pros. Mitchell can certainly miss bats at a high rate, with his strikeout rate (and his walk rate) jumping a ton during his sophomore year. He was the literal definition of effectively wild in his first full year as a starter with the Horned Frogs. Many view him as a straight bullpen arm, but he could very well take a Marcus Stroman-like move up the boards with a more consistent junior year (with less velocity than Stroman). Just as Stroman was seen as more of a late-inning option, Mitchell could help himself out with a better change-up, or a small bump up in velocity to being more of a mid 90s type with the fastball.
9. Dillon Overton, LHP (Oklahoma): Once he started throwing more strikes during his sophomore year, the lefty really started getting teams’ attention. Overton showed solid low 90s velocity and developing secondary stuff out of high school, and things have only changed for the better since then. The Oklahoma native now touches the mid 90s with his fastball, and his breaking ball continues to impress, although still with a regular degree of inconsistency. It’s also important to note that the lefty still has room on his frame to fill out, so another bump up in velocity might be in the cards. In 123 IP, he showed the 3rd highest K/bb of all sophomores, in by far the largest sample size.
10. Ryan Eades, RHP (LSU): Eades deserves to be here, and maybe higher based on pure stuff. If we’re looking at raw numbers, we see a different story. Regardless, many teams will be watching him closely this spring to see if his stuff can really produce quality innings. If not, it remains to be seen where his future lies, even with such good velocity and movement to his pitches. Eades has had trouble keeping lineups in check, and has been fairly hittable throughout his college career, while posting underwhelming strikeout totals. I would imagine most teams will be looking past the Louisiana native if his potential doesn’t begin to translate into games in the upcoming 2013 campaign.