2013 MLB Draft: Top 10 College First Basemen and Catchers

01/24/2013

Because neither position offers all that much this year out of the college ranks. Looking at these positions in general really shows how much better the prep class is (in terms of bats) this year. All of the wOBA numbers below are Park/Schedule adjusted, so keep that in mind.

1. Conrad Gregor, Vanderbilt: Nice mix of power and patience, with his stock (slightly) on the rise after a solid summer in the Cape Cod League. Gregor has a somewhat closed, tall stance, and has a stride in his swing that I wouldn’t quite call long, but it’s definitely not short. When he’s on, his swing looks good, with solid bat speed from the left side of the plate and not a whole lot of wasted motion  that can produce solid power (.328/.439/.463, .416 wOBA). It remains to be seen if Gregor can hit a traditional number of HRs for the position, as his swing is gauged a little more towards doubles. From what was seen this summer though, that trend might be changing heading into the spring (8 HR, 7 2b in 44 games). The fact that he’s shown at least the potential for better power production is encouraging in this draft class.
2. Tyler Horan, Virginia Tech: Ended up being one of the best power bats in Cape Cod league action this summer. Many have him pegged as an outfielder (as he’s spent most of his time in RF), but he’s dabbled in the infield before (this summer for example), and the part-time DH could very well make the full time shift as a pro. It would certainly help his value, although it remains to be seen if he’ll get any much of any time there this spring. Either way, Horan posted strong power numbers in 2012, both during the spring and summer (.282/.400/.585, .420 wOBA, then 16 HR this summer). Along with that has come a fair number of strikeouts too. Horan might actually be too selective, potentially lining himself up to being a three-outcome type player as a pro.
3. Brian Ragira, Stanford: Of all college first basemen available, his ceiling is probably the highest. At this point though, the production has not been up to par when you consider his raw tools. Not to mention he has to overcome the (at very least slight) stigma of being a Stanford bat. Some view him as a high-average first basemen, but in time I can see him doing more what he did this summer in Cape Cod action (.235/.347/.455, 9 HR, 2 2b). Ragira’s raw power is his best asset, and he may lean on it more as a pro considering his low bb, high K approach may not translate that well to the minors (.329/.385/.448 this spring). In short, Ragira confuses me. Like Horan, he could turn out to be a classic three outcome guy (although the walk component of that has yet to be proven).
4. Mitchell Garver, New Mexico: Has quietly hit a ton for a catcher, especially in 2012 (.377/.438/.612, .405 wOBA). He wasn’t getting many looks last year (undrafted) and not a whole lot has changed heading into 2013 (at least by most reports). Nevertheless, in such a poor draft class, he should get plenty of attention, especially playing for the Lobos alongside a potential top-15 pick in DJ Peterson. Garver was one of the best bats in the Mountain West Conference last year, and should be again in 2013 after a decent summer showing (.298/.354/.457 on the Cape). His hit tool should be an asset as a pro, and his approach should be as well, as he doesn’t strike out at that high a rate. I would be surprised to see him go undrafted again with another year of run production like 2012.
5. Trey Mancini, Notre Dame: Not sure what to think of Mancini, as he didn’t do much to build off of a nice 2011 debut in his sophomore year, and he isn’t getting a ton of attention in a weak draft class. Not to say his 2012 was bad. Mancini has hit for respectable power for a corner INF with a solid approach at the plate throughout his time in Division I ball (.320/.390/.560 through 107 total games, and .405 wOBA last year). In what summer league ABs we’ve seen from him (2011 New England lg – .296/.374/.520), he’s performed admirably as well. I’m not sure how well his aggressive approach will hold up, but he’s produced consistently at the college level. Scouts should definitely a good idea of him this year as they repeatedly scout teammate/potential first rounder Eric Jagielo. If anything, his stock should be pointing up between the audience of scouts in attendance and the weak draft class around him.
6. Andrew Knapp, Cal: A few years ago, he projected to possibly be a higher round pick in the upcoming draft. His stock has deflated as the 2013 Draft has come closer, with underwhelming performances by the switch hitter in his first two years (.253/.334/.386 so far). Oddly enough, he’s hit, and hit quite a bit during his time in summer leagues (the two best summer leagues actually). In 2011, he hit .400/.503/.557 in 43 Northwoods league games. In 2012, Knapp hit .293/.404/.557 in 40 Cape Cod league games. While it is a bit disconcerting to see him not hit at Cal, you can’t ignore what he has done against arguably better talent in the summer. Knapp has shown a good approach, hit tool, and power for catcher at times, albeit with a heavy dose of inconsistency. He might end up being a nice mid to early Day 2 gamble.
7. Tyler Ross, LSU: Definitely more gifted as a defender, although his hit tool isn’t all that bad. His reputation as a catcher is strong, especially after taking over for Micah Gibbs and playing full-time in 2012, becoming a better all-around player. Like most catchers, run production will never be his thing, and Ross won’t ever hit for power. Even so, he did handle the bat well last year in terms of contact rates, and at least showing an improved swing. Probably only peaks as a solid backup, but in this draft class, that’s not all bad for a college catcher.
8. Nick Backlund, Mercer: Not sure where Backlund and his .381/.471/.668 (.443 wOBA) came from in 2012. OK, that’s not true. Technically he emerged from the JUCO ranks in Oregon (and more specifically San Jose, CA). Regardless of where he came from, Backlund proved himself to be a legitimate run producer in the Atlantic Sun Conference, and a strictly first base prospect. Either way, he does warrant attention next year for the power he’s shown. That being said, he’s by far a proven commodity. He will need to probably hit for just as much power as he did in 2012, most likely more considering he is far older than most other guys coming out of the draft this year.
9. Chase Compton, Louisiana-Lafayette: Hard to point out many glaring positives aside from his recent performance in Alaska league ball this summer (.357/.457/.638). The Louisiana native has shown a sound approach, a good contact rate, and has a solid hit tool, but hasn’t shown any power to speak of. Even though he has not hit for much power, his wOBA (Park/Schedule adj.) is still just as high as the other first basemen on this list, mainly from a very, very good approach. It’s hard to project him at a corner position, but if you buy into the power he showed off this summer, he at least stands a chance of standing out this spring.
10. Johnny Coy, Wichita State: The big first baseman has been a bit a of a mixed bag with Wichita State, having two very solid years with an off one in between. His summer performance has been very consistent though. He was drafted in the 45th round back in 2011, showing mostly average power for the position since.