At the start of this year, it looked like the best college bat (that being the best all-around run producer) would either be Kris Bryant or DJ Peterson. There were (and are) some concerns about Bryant’s ability to hit for average as a pro, and there were questions about Peterson’s true power potential (for a guy definitely limited to 1st base). North Carolina’s Colin Moran and Stanford’s Austin Wilson were also right in the middle of that conversation.

Fast forward a few quick months, and things haven’t really changed all that much. Kris Bryant has established himself as the best all-around bat with the same skill set that scouts saw last year (just improved with another year of experience). With a great walk rate and plus plus power, he likely has more offensive upside than any other college bat this year. Although that’s not to say his floor isn’t decently high as well.

It’s a bit less clear who the next-best college bat is though. DJ Peterson is hitting a ton again this year for New Mexico, but some have voiced legitimate concern that his home park significantly boosts his offensive numbers. Even still, if you look at his Park and Schedule adjusted numbers on College Splits, Peterson’s numbers are still well above-average. Most seem sold on his power with his ability to make consistent contact or hit for average being a lot less certain.

Before this season Colin Moran was considered the best pure hitter in the draft, and nothing has changed. His ability to barrel up balls and make consistent contact is a big value, even if his power potential is in question (for a corner infielder). With his elite contact rate, and strong pitch recognition he could be a Bill Buckner/Mark Grace type first baseman if he’s forced to move across the diamond.

Austin Wilson has been, and continues to be more about potential and tools than actual performance. With such strong tools, he stands out in a class that lacks elite, middle of the order bats (with above-average defensive value as well). It’s been an odd year for him, and while I’m not a huge fan, a team lower in the 1st, or even early in the 2nd round could get a great value pick with him.

One of the bats that has emerged this year (or at least stepped up to realize his potential) is Hunter Renfroe. The tools have always been there, but in an even more raw way than the aforementioned Wilson. He’s improved his approach by leaps and bounds this year, and with significantly higher contact rates, his power numbers have spiked. It remains to be seen if the adjustments will continue as he heads off to the professional game, but if they do he could very easily be the 2nd best all-around college bat this year. Especially when you consider his value on defense.

Speaking of defense, Samford’s Phil Ervin has always been lingering in the conversation for those who might go in the first round. He will ultimately have a hard time surpassing all of the other bats in this post on offensive achievements along. His lack of elite talent with the bat is bolstered by strong value on the bases and in the field. His skill set isn’t the same, but in some ways he reminds me of former Notre Dame outfielder AJ Pollock (now with Arizona) with very strong all-around value. Even so, he will need to hit more than most expect him to in order to be the 2nd best college bat in this class.

Last but not least is Hunter Dozier. Currently listed as a shortstop, it seems likely that a transition to third or second base is in his future if reports are accurate. Even so, he’s been right near the top of the Division I leaderboard in wOBA the past two years. His strong approach and surprising pop could make him and interesting up-the-middle bat as a pro. If he can manage to stick at 2nd base, Dozier’s power could quietly make him the next most valuable college bat to come out of this draft class.

Not a ton of change from last week to this week. The top college bats appear to be Bryant, Renfroe, Moran, Peterson, and Wilson. Going strictly by the numbers, and Hunter Dozier is right in the middle of that conversation, and has been throughout the year. It’s the second straight year he’s been near the top of the Division I leaderboard in wOBA. Outfielders Aaron Judge (Fresno State) and Michael O’Neill (Michigan) both have some very loud tools (power in the first case, power and speed in the second), and are both faring better as of late.

All in all, no one is really reversing any early season struggles (at least statistically-speaking). Of those with big offensive tools and/or skill sets, guys like Chad Pinder, Erich Weiss, and Jared King could still surprise later in the season, even though they have underwhelmed in 2013.

Potential First Rounders:

Second rounders and beyond follow the break Read More

Notes: Well, we nearly saw a fun Jonathan Gray-Jason Hursh matchup on Friday. We at least Hursh was in top form, striking out 9 in 9 IP, allowing 1 FB out to 14 GB outs. Gray was just OK the next day against Oklahoma State. Gonzaga lefty Marco Gonzales and Missouri State’s Nick Petree both posted double digit strikeout totals yet again this past weekend. Both look to have pretty high floors heading towards June. Braden Shipley could definitely go in the first round, but he’s trying hard not to be with his past few outings. Though Jacksonville’s Chris Anderson had a nice rebound start against Lipscomb, his K rate continues to disappoint as of late. In the Rice-Memphis matchup, Sam Moll came out on top against Austin Kubitza. Both have been right there at the top of the Division I leaderboard.

Potential First Rounders

Second to Fifth Rounders (And Beyond):

At this point, it doesn’t seem likely that anyone will be overtaking Kris Bryant as the best overall college bat. Between his ability to get on base and his plus plus raw power, no one else has close to the same skillset. Hunter Renfroe‘s walk rate has increased a ton compared to last year, and his power potential is right there with Bryant, but he has been less consistent. If you take his tools on the other side of the ball into play, that starts a different conversation however. One could argue Renfroe’s overall skillset is more valuable, even with some of the positive comps Bryant is getting with his outfield play.

Colin Moran is a fine consolation prize to either of the above bats, and he just continues to hit as spring moves forward. Power production remains a concern, though you have to be encouraged by his hit tool (and have to hope it allows him to stick at 3rd). UNC Wilmington’s Michael Bass has quietly hit a ton this year, with a great walk rate and lots of success on the bases. For what it’s worth, he has a higher wOBA (Park/Schedule adjusted) than New Mexico’s DJ Peterson. If he can stick at 2nd base, Bass could be a really interesting prospect in the minors.

Potential First Rounders:

Second rounders and beyond follow the break Read More

Notes:

While Jonathan Gray has been the big name the past few months, Mark Appel has probably established himself as the clear #1 college pitcher available. Gray has more upside, but with Appel’s polish, longer track record, higher floor, and bigger repertoire, he is a more enticing pick, especially for those looking to nab a college arm. Both continued to pitch well this weekend, with Appel having the stronger showing against a solid Arizona State squad.

Ryne Stanek has shown fantastic stuff in the past, so even though he has underwhelmed throughout 2013 (and did again on Saturday), he will definitely merit a first round selection. Especially with this bad of a draft class. Braden Shipley’s K rate has been lacking recently. Not sure if there’s any difference in his stuff. Jacksonville’s Chris Anderson continues to take a tumble on most team’s draft boards with another poor outing. With the velocity and breaking stuff he showed not too long ago, he could be a great 2nd round value (if a team can figure him out). Austin Kubitza struggled again, this time against Alabama-Birmingham.

Missouri State’s Nick Petree hasn’t really been in the conversation for the next college best college pitcher after Appel and Gray, but he probably should be now. Petree’s 2.89 FIP and high floor should definitely get him selected somewhere in the first round, even if he lacks the upside of some of the other top arms.

Potential First Rounders

Second to Fifth Rounders (And Beyond):

More sleepers to follow. In case you haven’t followed some of the other posts:

Part one of the series

Part two

Part three

Part four

Part five

• Sam Moll, LHP (Memphis): The Tigers saw right-hander Dan Langfield go in the 3rd round of last year’s draft, and Moll could easily go that high in 2013. The lefty’s peripheral statistics have gone up and down the past two years with some time spent in the rotation, and some in the bullpen. In 2011, Moll tossed 40.1 IP of 2.68 ERA ball, striking out 48 and walking 16, allowing 33 hits. In 2012, Moll pitched 95.2 IP of 3.48 ERA ball, striking out 59 and walking 44, allowing 91 hits. During his only time in summer league ball (last year, in Cape Cod), Moll threw 32 IP of 2.76 ERA ball with 43 K and 3 bb. While I’m not quite sure why his strikeout rate fell so much last year, it’s jumped up a lot in 2013. So far through 48 innings, he’s struck out 67 and walked 16, allowing 36 hits and 18 runs en route to a 2.77 ERA (2.51 FIP). The lefty has some of the best peripheral stats in Division I ball, with excellent command and whiff rates.
• Mikey Reynolds, SS (Texas A&M): While he might not have a ton of power, the 5’9″ senior has shown off a strong approach this year. After transferring over from Paradise Valley CC last year, Reynolds posted a .306/.417/.403 line in 58 games with 21 SB (2 caught). Reynolds did struggle a bit in the Northwoods League this past summer however, hitting .246/.362/.339. He’s made some noticeable adjustments this year, hitting .388/.453/.442 (.444 wOBA) in 33 games, with a 14:11 bb to k ratio (and 12 SB). If he can manage to keep it up (and be a capable defender), he should be an interest bat-first middle infielder on Day Two.
• Bryan Radziewski, LHP (Miami): Of all college lefties available, the Hurricane has quietly been one of the best. Radziewski may not be one of the most physically imposing starters (at 5’9″-10″, 195 lbs.), he has been outstanding through 56 innings. The left-hander has struck out 73 while allowing 16 walks and 28 hits, leading to a 0.95 ERA (2.70 FIP). He missed most of last year after having to go under the knife, which was a shame after a strong freshman year debut (92 K, 37 bb, 87 h in 91 IP). It’s funny how he is not spoken about as much in draft circles, aside from those that follow the college game closely. While I can’t say how well Radziewski’s stuff will translate to the minors, his ability to miss bats will certainly help him a lot. 
  
• Jordan Patterson, 1B/OF (South Alabama): Even though Phil Ervin might be the standout hitter in the Sun Belt Conference heading into the draft, Patterson has quietly shown while he’s plenty valuable. With understated power (hitting a lot more doubles this year), his strong approach and hit tool (29 bb, 23 k) should translate well to the minors. His on-base skills are impressive (.474 wOBA) but he might be kind of a tweener defensively. Patterson should be a good defender in left or right and will need to show enough power to settle into a corner position. His advanced approach may lend itself to that in the future.
• Brandon Dixon, INF (Arizona): He might just be a poster child for LASIK. Before this year, the junior infielder had 165 ABs combined, posting a miserable .242/.326/.323 line. This year, Dixon has been fantastic with a .390/.459/.622 line, with 28 steals, 5 triples, and 6 home runs. His batting average overstates his overall line a bit, but he’s shown a knack for contact, and with his speed he could settle in as an interesting utility option in a pro organization.

Notes:

Potential First Rounders

Second to Fifth Rounders (And Beyond):

Notes:

From a pure numbers perspective, the top three pitchers in this college class are Mark Appel, Jonathan Gray, and Austin Kubitza. If you are sticking strictly to the numbers (with a minimum innings pitched in mind), then you would absolutely have to throw in Memphis lefty Sam Moll as well (and his 2.63 FIP through 63 IP). Throw in necessary conditions like past history and scouting consensus, and Sean Manaea and Ryne Stanek are right at the top of the conversation. Both have underwhelmed a bit in terms of performance, but they both also have strong reputations (and excellent stuff). I have Jason Hursh ranked fairly high because of his pure stuff, that this is his first full year back from arm surgery, and because he has posted excellent GB:FO ratios.

Thanks for taking a look at the blog.

1. Jonathan Gray, RHP (Oklahoma)
2. Mark Appel, RHP (Stanford)
3. Austin Kubitza, RHP (Rice)
4. Sean Manaea, LHP (Indiana State)
5. Braden Shipley, RHP (Nevada)
6. Ryne Stanek, RHP (Arkansas)
7. Trey Masek, RHP (Texas Tech)
8. Marco Gonzales, LHP (Gonzaga)
9. Jason Hursh, RHP (Oklahoma State)
10. Nick Petree, RHP (Missouri State)
11. Buck Farmer, RHP (Georgia Tech)
12. Ryan Eades, RHP (LSU)
13. Sam Moll, LHP (Memphis)
14. Kevin Ziomek, LHP (Vanderbilt)
15. Bobby Wahl, RHP (Ole Miss)
16. Chris Anderson, RHP (Jacksonville)
17. Alex Gonzalez, RHP (Oral Roberts)
18. Brian Radziewski, LHP (Miami)
19. Kent Emanuel, LHP (North Carolina)
20. Dillon Overton, LHP (Oklahoma)
21. Trevor Williams, RHP (Arizona State)
22. Andrew Thurman, RHP (UC Irvine)
23. Tom Windle, LHP (Minnesota)
24. Andrew Pierce, RHP (Southern Miss.)
25. Jonathon Crawford, RHP (Florida)
26. Ben Lively, RHP (Central Florida)
27. Corey Littrell, LHP (Kentucky)
28. Kyle McGowin, RHP (Savannah State)
29. Aaron Blair, RHP (Marshall)
30. Andrew Mitchell, RHP (TCU)
31. Patrick Boling, LHP (Georgia)
32. Tyler Nurdin, LHP (Oklahoma State)
33. Scott Frazier, RHP (Pepperdine)
34. Austin Voth, RHP (Washington)
35. Nolan Belcher, LHP (South Carolina)
36. David Garner, RHP (Michigan State)
37. Michael Wagner, RHP (San Diego)
38. Tyler Skulina, RHP (Kent State)
39. Aaron Brown, LHP (Pepperdine)
40. Tyler Alexander, LHP (Florida International)

Notes:

Potential First Rounders:

Second rounders and beyond follow the break Read More