Minor League Rundown

2012 Draft: Stock Up, Stock Down; Third Basemen and Outfielders

Posted by John on May 14, 2012 1 comment

Moving along in the infield, it’s time to take a look at some of the more interesting bats this year. Some of those that are landing at third in the prep ranks are among the more intriguing hitters available. The same can be said for the prep outfield class, where there are a number of great hitters available this June.

College Third Basemen:

Stock Up	Richie Shaffer, Clemson: This year’s class is light on bats. Shaffer has always shown one of the best power strokes going back to last year, and he’s even shown the aptitude to even be a serviceable defensive third baseman as a pro.
Stock Down	Patrick Wisdom, St. Mary’s: There isn’t much of a question about his pure talent or ceiling, but it has not always shown up in games. This year is no different. Unfortunately the talent has really not be present for St. Mary’s all year, although he has been better as of late.

College Corner Outfielders:

Stock Up	Jeff Gelalich, UCLA: He’s quietly become an interesting option for those looking to pick up a quality bat in the supplemental first. Gelalich has put on a nice power/speed display, leading the UCLA offense.
Stock Down	Shaun Cooper, Utah: The senior slugger hasn’t hit much at all this spring. He had a great summer ball campaign, but hasn’t done much to follow it up so far.

College Center Fielders:

Stock Up	Barrett Barnes, Texas Tech: There have been a number of solid college center fielders that have come to the forefront this spring, but Barnes might just have the most complete offensive skill set. He’s put solid plate discipline, power, and speed on display for the Red Raiders.
Stock Down	Ted Blackman, Coastal Carolina: He had a solid summer ball campaign in 2011, and things looked good for Blackman as he transferred to Coastal Carolina. Blackman hasn’t quite carried over his St. Petersburg CC success to his new team this year.

High School Third Basemen:

Stock Up	Tanner Rahier, California HS: Along with Addison Russell, he is one of the faster rising prep infielders in this class. He’s become one of the stronger hitters available in the prep infield ranks, especially for those teams with scouts that think he can be a shortstop.
Stock Down	Rio Ruiz, California HS: His bat and arm speed were both big tools heading into this spring. There were some skeptics (as there are with most prep players), but overall it seemed like scouts needed to see more of him. Unfortunately for him, surgery knocked him out for most of the year. It might just make him a steal in the supplemental 1st or 2nd round.

High School Corner Outfielders:

Stock Up	Courtney Hawkins, Texas HS: He was one of the higher-celing’d bats heading into this spring season, and nothing has changed that. More than anything, Hawkins has convinced teams that his high ceiling is actually attainable.
Stock Down	David Dahl, Alabama HS: His stock is not down all that much per se, but it isn’t quite as high as it was earlier in the year. Dahl’s offensive upside is big, even with the occasional struggles seen this spring. He’s got lots of bat speed, power, and and impressive approach for a prep bat.

High School Center Fielders:

Stock Up	Albert Almora, Florida HS: There are very few bats this year as young and as polished as Almora. The outfielder has a rather high floor for a prep bat, arguably higher than Byron Buxton. An impressive mix of plate discipline and center field defense will have lots of teams calling.
Stock Down	Anthony Alford, Mississippi HS: It’s a shame that the new CBA will most likely push him to college ball. A team very well may take him after the first round, but over-slot first round money may still be needed to sign him. His in-game production hasn’t quite lined up with his tools.

Top 5 Offensive Seasons by a 19-Year-Old in MLB History

Posted by Iain on May 3, 2012 No comments

Even though we’ve been reminded of his age constantly with Bryce Harper’s call up over the weekend, it’s sometimes hard to wrap your head around the fact that the young phenom was born in October of 1992. With a few years of hype, combined with a solid introduction to the big leagues through his first few games (including a 3-4 performance last night), it’s can also be easy to lose sight of the fact that 19-year-olds don’t generally become MLB stars overnight. Tempering expectations might not be a bad idea, considering all other 19-year-old future major leaguers are either in the minors or college right now. For a frame of reference regarding Harper’s potential ceiling this season, here are the five best offensive seasons by a 19-year-old in MLB history:

5. Edgar Renteria (1996): Renteria broke into the big leagues with the ~~Miami~~ Florida Marlins on May 10, 1996, after Baseball America ranked him as the Marlins’ top prospect coming into the season. During this rookie campaign, the shortstop hit .309/.358/.399 over 106 games, while also adding 16 stolen bases and getting caught twice. He did spend a short stint on the DL, but made up for lost time with a 22-game hitting streak upon his return to the starting lineup. He finished second to Todd Hollandsworth in a fairly close vote for NL Rookie of the Year, garnering 84 points to Hollandsworth’s 105. Derek Jeter won AL honors that year in a clean sweep of first place votes.

4. Ken Griffey Jr. (1989): The first overall pick of the 1987 draft by the Mariners broke spring training with the big league club in 1989, making his debut on Opening Day. The Kid spend his rookie campaign making backwards baseball caps cool, while hitting .264/.329/.420. He also added the first 16 of his eventual 630 career home runs. In addition to the numbers put up on offense, his flashy defense in center also can’t be overlooked. Griffey placed third in AL Rookie of the Year voting, losing out to Baltimore RHP Gregg Olson, who became the first reliever to win Rookie of the Year.

2012 MLB Mock Draft: V 2.0

Posted by John on April 23, 2012 5 comments

Almost two months ago I tossed version 1.0 of our Mock Draft out there, and things seem to be coming together as we are even less time than that away from the Draft now. While there isn’t a surefire, clear number one candidate, Byron Buxton is the popular choice for good reason. There are certainly others that you can make a case for as well, although they are either too risky (Correa?), or aiming a little too low/safe for #1 overall (Appel). Even now, things are still plenty early, and lots still has yet to take place for those in the prep and college ranks.

Astros - Byron Buxton, OF (Georgia HS): The best combination of tools and polish in this draft. There’s way more of the former, but not to the point of him being a big risk at #1. He started off the spring right near the top, and looks to have solidified his value over all but 2 or 3 others.
Twins - Mike Zunino, C (Florida): He seems to be doing more or less what most expected him to do. The power is there, and the questions about his defense no longer appear to be as present as they once were.
Mariners - Carlos Correa, SS (Puerto Rico): With loud tools, it only seems a matter of projecting his ultimate position. Most think a move to third is inevitable. Though Correa’s a raw hitter, his tools at the plate would make him a fantastic value at either position if everything works out. Plenty of risk, but plenty of upside too.
Orioles - Kyle Zimmer, RHP (San Francisco): Zimmer has one of the best two-pitch mixes in the draft. The righty did quite well against quality hitting in the Cape Cod league in 2011, and is still showing off plus plus stuff.
Royals - Kevin Gausman, RHP (LSU): He’s shown some of the best velocity among college pitchers in this class. Though his change-up is coming along, he still has yet to really show a consistently useful breaking ball.
Cubs - Mark Appel, RHP (Stanford): He’s both projectable, and should end up with a decently high floor. Some concerns about his ability to be a true #1 starter do exist. Either way, a lot of value can be had in signing the righty.
Padres - Albert Almora, OF (Florida HS): He’s been around the game for a while now, playing for a number of different teams at a high level. As such, he’s as mature a high school bat as you’ll find in this class. Almora doesn’t blow you away with one single tool, but he does a lot of things much better than most his age. A pretty safe pick as prep bats go, especially considering he should be at least a solid center fielder, if not much better.
Pirates - Max Fried, LHP (California HS): Projectable, and already touching the mid-90s occasionally with his fastball, the left-hander is one of a trio of strong prep lefties. Fried seems to have shown himself to be the best of them through the spring.
Rockies - Andrew Heaney, LHP (Oklahoma State): Aside from Kyle Zimmer, not many other pitchers have flown up the charts like Heaney. Above-average velocity and command from the left side, and he has two impressive (although still evolving) off-speed pitches.
Athletics - Marcus Stroman, RHP (Duke): It’s hard to look past his velocity, breaking ball, and impressive command. As long as he can prove to withstand the rigors of starting in pro ball, Stroman could settle in at the top of a rotation. He was one of the few bright spots on Team USA this summer. Read more »

2012 Draft: Stock Up, Stock Down: Shortstops, Second Basemen

Posted by John on April 18, 2012 1 comment

Moving along in the infield, it’s time to take a look at some of the more premium defensive positions. Some of those that come out of this group could be among the more valuable position players in the 2012 Draft, both sides of the ball considered. It’s hard to peg prep second basemen. Most that project to end up there are currently shortstops, and talented ones at that. Those that fit into that category here are not perfect fits, and could still end up at the shortstop position with work.

College Shortstops:

Stock Up

Nolan Fontana, Florida: He has made marked improvements on both offense and defense this year. Always grading out high on makeup, Fontana’s work ethic has shown up a lot. His defense could make him a solid shortstop, or plus defensive second baseman. Fontana’s plate discipline and high contact rate is yet another positive. The most surprising development this year would have to be in the power department. It may have made him a lock for the first round.

Stock Down

Deven Marrero, Arizona State: Not quite sure what happened here. He really just hasn’t shown the same kind of offensive potential that he did last year. The growth most expected has not shown up in 2012. In a shallow draft, he shouldn’t fall out of the first round, even with an underwhelming spring.

College Second Basemen:

Stock Up	Joey DeMichele, Arizona State: The second/third basemen started the year hot, and has continued to be one of the Sun Devils best hitters. I’m not sure that he has one massive standout tool, but if you had to choose one, it might be the hit tool. Solid defense could give him a long pro career.
Stock Down	Kenny Diekroeger, Stanford: He has generally underwhelmed most of his college career. Even still, he won’t be a bad selection for whichever team takes him. Diekroeger’s pure talent and potential are enough to warrant a supplemental 1st round gamble. Admittedly, the offensive talents most expected to see the last two years have been glaringly absent.

High School Shortstops:

Stock Up	Addison Russell, Florida HS: If he can stick at the shortstop position, he could challenge Carlos Correa and Gavin Cecchini for the title of top offensive prep shortstop. There are plenty of skeptics that think he’s ticketed for third though. Even still, he has the bat for a corner postion. A later round pick in the first round is possible.
Stock Down	C.J. Hinojosa, Texas HS: He came into the spring as a darkhorse candidate to be one of the very best shortstops. A solid commitment to Texas had made him less of a possibility, and a much more recent shoulder injury keeps him from convincing scouts of his potential before June. A later overslot sign is still possible, but who knows with the new Collective Bargaining Agreement.

High School Second Basemen:

Stock Up

Jesmuel Valentin Diaz, Puerto Rico: Still very much a shortstop right now, there have been enough questions about his defense to fit him here. It’s certainly not horrible though, and he has the quickness to be solid there with work. He has been overshadowed by Carlos Correa in Puerto Rico, but don’t sleep on Valentin Diaz, especially considering his strong 20111 summer showcase.

Stock Down

Alex Bregman, New Mexico HS: The part-time infielder, part-time catcher was looking like a very interesting prep bat throughout last year and the early stages of this spring. Some teams may get scared off by the lack of exposure to him this summer after a finger injury though. Bregman could be a fantastic pick after the 1st round with his mix of work ethic, quickness, and impressive hit tool. Especially if he can stick at shortstop or catcher. If not, LSU will have a fine player.

Next Up: Third Basemen, Outfielders

2012 Draft: Stock Up, Stock Down: Catchers and First Basemen

Posted by John on April 18, 2012 2 comments

We already covered right and left-handed pitchers that are trending up and down; now it’s onto catchers and first basemen. Not any massive standouts here (as in those flying up to 1st or 2nd round status, but there are some here moving up the ranks. Just because one guy is trending up and one is moving down, it doesn’t necessarily mean the “stock down” player is the worse one.

College Catchers:

Stock Up	Kevin Plawecki, Purdue: His pure hitting skills and plate discipline have never been in question, and Plawecki’s defense should be good enough to be successful post-college. It remains to be seen if he has enough in-game power to be more than a backup though.
Stock Down	Josh Elander, Texas Christian: Elander hasn’t quite built upon last year’s efforts through the spring and then summer play with Team USA. While he has underwhelmed, he’s still shown enough to be one of the top college catchers taken.

College First Basemen:

Stock Up	D.J Hicks, Central Florida: It’s not really all that great of a year for college hitters, much less those at first base. Hicks has some of the most legitimate in-game power among college first basemen. He’s also improved his plate discipline quite a bit this year.
Stock Down	Adam Brett Walker, Jacksonville: The 4-5 tool potential is still there, although not much improvement has been made on his 2011 effort. If anything, he’s posting worse numbers than last year. He should still go plenty high considering his potential in a weaker draft class.

High School Catchers:

Stock Up	Clint Coulter, Washington HS: The bat has a lot of teams paying attention. Like many prep backstops though, he’s not a lock to stay at the position. More steady defense through the end of the spring should help his case for a late 1st or supplemental 1st pick.
Stock Down	Stryker Trahan, Louisiana HS: Coming in to the year, he was looking like one of the more intriguing prep bats available after Byron Buxton. He hasn’t shown as much of the premium talent that was seen throughout last year. High value prep catchers are hard to get, but Trahan’s as good a bet as any for this year, even with a so-so spring.

High School First Basemen:

Stock Up	Matt Olson, Georgia HS: Lots and lots of power already, with even more room to grow and add strength. With very few prep first basemen worthy of a first or second round selection, his potential might make him the first one off the board.
Stock Down	Keon Barnum, Florida HS: There are plenty of questions about his approach and his swing. Not what you want to see from a guy who will be staying at first as a pro. There’s obviously power here, but if it doesn’t begin to show in games then his stock will be in question.

Next Up: College and High School Shortstops, Second Basemen

2012 Draft: Stock Up, Stock Down: Pitchers

Posted by John on April 16, 2012 1 comment

Here’s a quick breakdown of who’s trending up, and who’s trending down among the top players in the 2012 Draft. Every other position should follow, and updates should as well as June creeps closer.

College RHP:

Stock Up	Marcus Stroman, Duke: The Division I leader in strikeouts has slowly but surely trended upward throughout this spring. He’s showing teams that he can command the strikezone with plus stuff. (Honorable Mention: Kevin Gausman, LSU)
Stock Down	D.J. Baxendale, Arkansas: Still a perfectly fine selection in June, his command has tapered off a bit this year. Not quite as sharp, he’s been more hittable and as such he’s punching out less guys.

College LHP:

Stock Up	Andrew Heaney, Oklahoma State: He’s been on fire since summer ball. Heaney is quickly making the case that he’s the best college lefty available with big K numbers, strong velocity, command, and quickly-improving off-speed stuff.
Stock Down	Holby Milner, Texas: After showing promising stuff in Cape Cod league play, the lefty hasn’t done much to build on it this spring. Milner hasn’t been particularly bad, but a number of other lefties have done more, pushing him down the charts.

High School RHP:

Stock Up	Zach Eflin, Florida HS: Seems to be the one big name that has been, and continues to, fly up the high school pitching ranks. Good velocity, and already showing impressive breaking stuff, along with a frame ready for pro ball.
Stock Down	Walker Weikel, Florida HS: As a projection-first arm (even more so than other HS arms), his stock has been a little volatile. No one denies his potential, but you can definitely question his ultimate ceiling. The velocity and command isn’t always there, though projecting a guy like Weikel is exactly what scouts do best.

High School LHP:

Stock Up	Max Fried, California HS: He began the year as the top prep lefty in the country, and it’s not looking like he’ll be surrendering that title before June comes. Fried has show great velocity for a prep lefty, and his off-speed stuff is also among the best of all prep lefties. (Honorable Mention: Hunter Virant)
Stock Down	Matt Smoral, Ohio HS: It’s not that he’s short on talent- definitely not. It’s more about the broken foot bone he suffered recently. He most likely falls into the same situation as Luc Giolito: scouts have seen enough to know the talent is there. And in Smoral’s case, it’s not even an arm injury.

Next Up: College and High School Catchers, First Basemen

2012 Fantasy Baseball Ranking and Tiers: Starting Pitchers

Posted by Iain on April 12, 2012 No comments

There are so many schools of thought for pitching in fantasy baseball, I’ll just do my top 50 and let you figure out what to do with it. Strategy for drafting/finding starting pitching, given that they produce only 1-2 times a week, can be a post of its own later. In the meantime, enjoy the rankings found below (and tell me how stupid I am because I forgot someone/ranked them too high/ranked them too low).

All rankings are given a 5×5 format. Players with an ‘*’ can also be found on our Top 20 Fantasy Pitching Prospects post; it’s a great resource to look for some deep sleepers and potential midseason call-ups, especially for keeper leagues. We’ll also be sure to keep you updated as the season goes on for smart pick-ups as prospects are called up.

Tier 1

1	Roy Halladay	PHI	Doc Halladay – still the best.
2	Clayton Kershaw	LAD	Not a bad argument to put Kershaw ahead of Halladay, probably will be next year.
3	Justin Verlander	DET	Probably won’t win 24 games again, but absolutely no reason to wait on drafting him.
4	Cliff Lee	PHI	Been a top tiered starter for 4 years now, and that won’t change this year.
5	Felix Hernandez	SEA	Expect the same story: he won’t get a ton of W’s, but he’ll excel at everything else.

2012 Draft: Top College RHP (Part 3); Agosta v. Rodgers v. Kline

Posted by John on April 9, 2012 1 comment

We took a break from ranking the top college right-handers in the 2012 Draft, last touching on the best left-handers available this June. Jumping back, it’s time to take a look at three guys who could go anywhere from the first to second rounds. One is a standard high-ceiling righty, one is a command/control pitcher, and one is a starter-potential reliever with sometimes-great stuff. Martin Agosta has received a lot of praise out of St. Mary’s, making him one of the most talented pitchers in this class by some reports. Brady Rodgers is a prolific strike-thrower, and has shown the ability to command four different pitches over at Arizona State. One of the best ACC pitchers coming out of college this June might just be Branden Kline. He’s throwing out of the bullpen this spring, but could easily be a valuable starter with his stuff and frame.

One of the less talked about college righties (at least in the earlier part of the spring) would have to be Martin Agosta. His combination of velocity and breaking stuff has to be one of the better in this draft class, and it is already missing bats at a solid rate. I think the stats are a bit behind his overall talent level, as he has quite a bit more room to grow and mature as a pitcher. In Cal Ripken summer league play this past summer, Agosta showed off impressive command and control as well, giving further momentum to his draft stock. His command improved by a large margin in 2011, and so far this year, he’s taken that skill a step further. Agosta is more deceptive and harder to hit this year, and might just prove to be a steal for teams making selections in the latter half of the first round.

Compared to Agosta, he might not have the strongest pure stuff, but Brady Rodgers more than makes up for it with command and polish on the mound. More importantly, he can takes much more advantage of it than pitchers with a similar types of skill set. Rodgers can not only control the strike zone, he can also miss bats at a very solid rate, mainly a product of his multiple off-speed offerings. Not that one should totally sleep on his fastball though. It might not be the most sexy pitch, but the ASU righty commands it well, all the way up to 90 mph at times. His walk rate has taken a bump up this year, and Rodgers strikeout rate has not done much to offset the loss in performance. He’ll need to continue to show impeccable command and control to end up somewhere in the late first, supplemental first, or second rounds.

Branden Kline is one of the more interesting right-handers coming out of the college ranks this year. He had spent a fair amount of time in the bullpen prior to this year (mainly because he had trouble throwing strikes), where his plus stuff lacked the opportunity to grow further. In his new starting role this spring, his game hasn’t quite come together the way some expected, but Kline is definitely still missing bats and showing off great stuff at times. Unfortunately for him he still has trouble commanding the strike zone, and that may ultimately push him to the supplemental first or second rounds. On the bright side, his plus velocity and sometimes-great off-speed stuff should keep him from falling too far, no matter how little he improves upon his command.

Top 20 Fantasy Pitching Prospects for 2012

Posted by John on March 30, 2012 1 comment

In 2012, it remains to be seen if we will see strong performances out of rookies like we did with Jeremy Hellickson, Michael Pineda, and Brandon Beachy. This list is far more useful for those looking for deep mixed league help than those in standard leagues outside of a few top prospects. Those with the strongest prospect stock are either stronger 2013 fantasy options, or are simply blocked by others in the organization.

Matt Moore, Rays: Just in case you haven’t heard, Matt Moore is pretty good. He has a vast arsenal of pitches at his disposal, and many of them are quality swing-and-miss pitches. Moore throws plenty of strikes as well, so he could become a big part of your rotation (although watch out for innings limits).
Drew Pomeranz, Rockies: He has the opportunity and the stuff to make an impact this year. Pomeranz can miss bats, induce weak contact, and limit his walks quite a bit. If he’s on he could be a nice piece at the back of your rotation.
Jacob Turner, Tigers: The 20 year old has always risen to the challenge of Detroit’s aggressive promotions, and it should be more of the same in 2012. Turner has the potential to be fantastic in time, but temper your expectations for this year (at the ML level). He’s still developing his arsenal, (understandably so as Turner is just approaching the legal drinking age in May), so some growing pains are to be expected.
Julio Teheran, Braves: The righty has top-of-the-rotation stuff, it’s just a matter of him showing it more consistently. He might have a bit of a learning curve (fair for his age), but he could be fun to watch if he begins to really command his pitches. Most are hoping for a much more dominant year from him this year.
Trevor Bauer, Diamondbacks: I don’t think the righty’s path to the majors will fall into the
“normal” career progression. Even with talented hurlers like Tyler Skaggs and Pat Corbin down in the minors, Bauer’s pitching could earn him the first call-up in 2012.
Wily Peralta, Brewers: Peralta picked a nice time to make big improvements in his approach to pitching. There’s lots of potential for him to grab a rotation spot, and his stuff could produce solid K and ERA help.
Shelby Miller, Cardinals: Well, it’s hard to argue against him being one of the best pitching prospects in baseball. Even with that though, the Cards won’t be in a big hurry to promote the 21 year old. For as good as he is, Miller still has things to improve upon. If he dominates and Chris Carpenter struggles to stay healthy, he could be up sooner.
Jarrod Parker, Athletics: The former Diamondback has looked good since returning from arm surgery. It sounds like Parker still needs to work on his breaking stuff a little, but he can definitely throw strikes and miss bats. We’ll see how quickly the A’s push him to be up at the ML level.
Tyler Skaggs, Diamondbacks: The Dan Haren trade is looking a lot less lopsided now. Skaggs has done great things since switching organizations, and will be competing with the incredibly talented Trevor Bauer for ML playing time. The lefty is capable of missing lots of bats, and getting above-average ground ball rates. If Bauer is slow to dominate this year, keep an eye on Skaggs.
Brad Peacock, Athletics: One of the newest additions to the A’s organization, he could provide a nice boost to your roster’s K totals. There will be some growing pains as he works towards having a more solid third pitch. Plenty of opportunity to seize some major league innings as Billy Beane rebuilds.
Robbie Erlin, Padres: I’d say he’s pretty happy with the Mike Adams trade. He’s got big fly-ball rates, and thus should take full advantage of the spacious dimensions of Petco. Erlin can also definitely miss bats while still throwing strikes, so look for big WHIP and K help from him in time. As he enters his age-21 season, there’s still lots of room for him to improve his stuff and become more than just an elite strike-thrower.
Garrett Richards, Angels: If you were a Juan Nicasio fan last year, here’s a guy who’s fastball rates just as well (it’s actually better). The Angels top 4 are great, but beyond that the righty could easily solidify himself a role at the back of the rotation.
James Paxton, Mariners: Well it took him quite a while to finally sign with a MLB team after leaving Kentucky, but it all seems well worth the wait. Paxton steamrolled through Low A and Double A, posting great K and GB rates, leaving only weak contact in his wake.
Mike Montgomery, Royals: It’s true 2011 was a very down year for him, but it still very much sounds like he has the kind of stuff that could still put him at the top of the Kansas City rotation. Just entering his age-22 year, he’ll need to really improve his command. If he makes the necessary adjustments, there aren’t many at the ML level that should get in his way.
Martin Perez, Rangers: Just now entering his age-21 season, Perez has yet to have a dominating season worthy of how good his stuff can be. He’s always been a bit too hittable, mainly from a lack of command. The lefty certainly has the stuff to post big K rates and strong ERA/WHIP numbers at some point in the future. In his first full year at Triple-A, it might be time for him to finally have a dominant year.
Drew Smyly, Tigers: Similar to James Paxton in that he dominated during his first full pro season, Smyly also has posted very strong K numbers. He was an excellent strike-thrower in his first year of pro ball, missing bats and keeping his walks low. A strong start at Double-A could bring him a shot at ML innings, possibly even over Casey Crosby.
Manny Banuelos, Yankees: The pure stuff is obviously there for him to be great, but it still should take some time for him to post useful fantasy numbers. For starters, more consistent strike-throwing will go a long way for him, the walk numbers are a bit high. The Yanks don’t exactly have much of a spot ready for him anyways.
Joe Wieland, Padres: A part of the Mike Adams trade, Wieland should benefit a lot from Petco. He is a control/command guy with better off-speed stuff than velocity, but that should not keep him from being a useful fantasy option. As Wieland heads into his age-22 year, an improving change-up could make him an interesting guy to keep an eye on.
Eric Surkamp, Giants: It’s hard to ignore his minor league track record. He’s consistently missed bats at a high rate, and thrown strikes at similarly high rates throughout his career. Surkamp’s small major league sample saw lots of walks, something that shouldn’t happen as he progresses on in 2012. The lefty’s fastball is just average, but his offspeed stuff more than makes up for it. As does his excellent command and ability to change speeds.
Nathan Eovaldi, Dodgers: Though he still struggles with consistently throwing strikes, improved stuff has made him an interesting fantasy option. Eovaldi’s hard, slurvy off-speed stuff works well off of a quality four-seamer. I like him in deeper leagues, and he might even have potential in standard mixed leagues in time.

Others to keep in mind:

Alex Torres, Rays
Neil Ramirez, Rangers
Casey Kelly, Padres
Danny Hultzen, Mariners
Casey Crosby, Tigers
Tommy Milone, Athletics
Randall Delgado, Braves
Trevor May, Phillies
Jake Odorizzi, Royals

2012 Draft: Top College LHP; Heaney v. Mooneyham v. Johnson

Posted by John on March 29, 2012 1 comment

Taking a break from writing on the top college RHP in the 2012 Draft, we’re only shifting gears slightly. There are a number of interesting left-handers as well, and the ones mentioned here stand a great chance of going sometime in the first round if they keep it up. There will be all kinds of talent coming out of U of Florida this June, and the highest pick might be Brian Johnson. The lefty has plenty of polish, and has shown the ability to throw three different pitches well. I think most expected a little better results from him on the mound this year though. Andrew Heaney is quickly showing himself to be one of, if not the, best left-handers with his efforts pitching for Oklahoma State. He’s striking out tons this year, with great command, a solid fastball, and improving breaking stuff. Stanford’s Brett Mooneyham might have been overshadowed by rotation-mate Mark Appel coming into the year, but that’s no longer true this spring. The big lefty missed 2011 with an arm injury, and is quickly making up for lost time.

Brian Johnson has been the top-rated college LHP in this class for most of the past year. He has the build and athleticism that teams want, and the potential on the mound to still get a lot better as a pro. Johnson’s fastball is solid for a left-handed pitcher, above-average probably, but it’s his secondary stuff (and the feel that he has for it) that makes him a good possibility to go in the first round. By most accounts, his slider is his most valuable pitch right now in terms of generating grounders and missing bats, though Johnson’s change-up is quickly improving as well. Further improvement with the latter will cement his status as a first-round pick. There are a number of other college pitchers ranks that throw two pitches well. Johnson’s ability to throw a fastball, change, and slider for strikes will put him above many of the other college arms, even if his ceiling might not be as high. What’s most especially interesting about him is that he could be a legitimate first-base prospect for a number of teams as well with a nice lefty power stroke.

Over at Oklahoma State, Andrew Heaney is coming on strong not just amongst college LHP, but among all college pitchers. He’s posted a fantastic K/BB ratio (one of the best in Division I) so far this year with one of the best all-around combinations of stuff and command. You could easily argue that Heaney has the best fastball of all college LHP, running it up to the mid 90s when’s he on. Working off of that, he throws a strong slider as well, which is one of the big reasons for the large improvement in his performance this year. The lefty began this trend back in the summer during Cape Cod action, where he showed himself to be one of the top 3 lefties there. As he’s solidified his mechanics through the past year, his stuff has also improved. Heaney has always been one that scouts have monitored (ever since HS), and that’s starting to show up a lot this year. With his combination of well-above average pure stuff, smooth mechanics, and strong command, he looks well on his way to going in the first if he keeps this up.

Last but not least is the talented Brett Mooneyham. He was already on the radar before this season began, and he’s proving all those who had faith in the TJ surgery patient correct. His stuff has come back to him following his rehab of last year, so that may almost be a good sign for teams looking at him. He has the build and the stuff that teams are looking for in a left-handed pitcher, especially in the velocity department. The Stanford lefty has been all over the map the past year in terms of velocity (high 80s to mid 90s), but that’s to be expected from a guy just coming off of a Tommy John procedure. Better command will go a long way for Mooneyham and his draft stock, as his breaking stuff has plus potential. It’s just a matter of throwing it for strikes more. If he can do that, he’s right behind Heaney and Johnson as far as college LHP go.

Next up: Holby Milner (Texas), Alex Wood (Georgia), Lex Rutledge (Samford)